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Poland: MPC to keep the policy rate on hold at 1.5% - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, in the Poland, there is no doubt that the MPC will keep the policy rate on hold at 1.5% today and the focus will be on the press statement and conference.

Key Quotes

“The sharp fall in oil prices has put downwards pressure on the headline inflation rate, which was running at 1.1% Y/Y in December, well below the 2.5% target. Furthermore, there are signs that manufacturing is slowing in response to weaker EU demand with the PMI index sitting at 47.6 in December, although household consumption is likely to remain strong given rapidly rising real incomes.”

“The press statement is likely to repeat the formula that “the current level of interest rates is conducive to keeping the Polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability”.”

“In the press conference Governor Glapinski will strike a fairly dovish tone, saying that in his view rates will be on hold through this year and probably all next year. He might even add that cuts are not inconceivable in 2020 if the economy slows more than expected.”

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