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Australia: Disappointing housing data - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that Australia’s Building Approvals crashed in Nov, -9.1%/m, well down on market estimates for a 0.3% drop.

Key Quotes

“In seasonally adjusted terms, there were 15,465 approvals in Nov, which was the lowest in 5 years. The bulk of the decline in approvals for Nov was due to a slump in apartment approvals, -18%/m, with housing approvals holding up relatively better, -2.6%/m. By state, approvals fell 14% in Vic, 8% in NSW, 7% in WA and 4% in QLD in the month of Nov.”

“Our guess is that the RBA is unlikely to be too fazed by today's data despite the disappointing outcome. The Dec RBA Minutes referred to the significant amount of work outstanding that was likely to support dwelling investment over the following year. In addition, the RBA cites improving labour market conditions, which should ensure declines are moderate and steady, not sharp.”

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