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NZD/USD awaits Trump's 'Border Wall Speech" for price action

  • NZD/USD is consolidating between S1 and S2 support at the 0.6720 level as we move through a quiet start in early Asia that follows a subdued session in FX overnight. 
  • NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6722, within a tight ear;y Asian range of between 0.6721 and 0.6727. 

The greenback was stripping the bird of its glory overnight in a correction back towards the 96 handle in the DXY as risk appetite began to fade on old news that was starting to wear somewhat thin. However, the optimism over Sino/US trade talks continued to boy US stocks that closed in a sea of green for a third consecutive day with the DJIA camping out above the 32.8% fibo of the Dec decline. 

"NZD struggled to find friends overnight in a challenging environment for kiwi. But moves may be fickle, with plenty of event risk on the horizon," noted analysts at ANZ Bank adding, "We do think it’s shaping up to be a challenging environment for sustained kiwi strength. There’s plenty of event risk that could incite volatility in coming days."

Trump's speech (2100 EST / 0200 GMT)

First up, we have President Trump who will make a live address regarding border security which should be worth tuning into considering the implications for a prolonged US government shutdown. The longest shutdown on record is 21 days, from late December 1995 to early January 1996.  The last thing markets need right now is the confidence of the world's largest economy stripped away. Moreover, tax refunds are at stake if the shutdown goes on for much longer, and that will hit Wall Street and the Presidents popularity. 

The partial shutdown has now stretched 17 days and ranks among the longest in U.S. history. Trump is rejecting any spending bill, including a package the House passed last week, that does not include more than $5 billion for his border wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.

NZD/USD levels

  • Support 0.6540
  • Resistance 0.6780

Bulls have taken back the 23.6% Fibo at 0.6663 and are finding resistance at a key confluence of the 21 and 50-D SMA meeting R1. Beyond there, we have R2 located at 0.6789. R3 is located at 0.6818 which will take out the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6810. The 50% Fibo is located at 0.6929 guarding the December high of 0.6969. On the flip side, a break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6679 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo. 

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