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Brazil: A sluggish industry beneath the data volatility - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank note that the Brazil’s industrial production (IP) inched higher by 0.1% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in November, disappointing market expectations and Rabobank’s own estimate.

Key Quotes

“After the huge payback growth in headline IP in June (following May’s truckers’ strike), that is the fifth reading in a row with sequential monthly changes either in red ink or close to zero.”

“Underlying IP trends point to ambiguous directions (depending on the time-window), on the heels of these noisy base-effects.”

“All in all, the recent numbers underscore our expectation of a slower sequential GDP growth in Q4, after an atypically (or temporarily) strong expansion in Q3.”

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