German industry ends 2018 in contraction mode – ABN AMRO

Aline Schuiling, analyst at ABN AMRO, points out that orders for Germany’s manufacturing companies contracted by 1% mom in November, following a modest 0.2% rise in October.

Key Quotes

“The orders data can be volatile on a monthly basis, and part of the drop in November might be related to the strikes and protests in France, as foreign orders from other eurozone countries were particularly week in November. Still, the drop in orders seems to reflect ongoing weakness in the global manufacturing sector and world trade.”

“The manufacturing PMI as well as the Ifo business climate indicator for the manufacturing sector declined in November and in December, while the details of each of the two reports showed that the weakness was concentrated in export orders and the expectations about exports growth.”

“We expect overall industrial production in Germany to have contracted in Q4.”