US: Data surprises send mixed signals – BNP Paribas
Analysts at BNP Paribas suggest that for the US economy, the vast majority of the indicators remain above their long term average, with inflation and the core personal consumption expenditures deflator being notorious exceptions.
“Compared to consensus expectations the picture is mixed. Job growth in December has been surprisingly strong but the unemployment rate came in higher than expected.”
“One should not draw firm conclusions from this considering that the participation rate increased as well, reaching the highest level since September 2017. The big disappointment came from the ISM manufacturing index which dropped 5.2 points, admittedly from a high level.”