Germany: Disappointing industrial production gives rise to fears of a technical recession - ING

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, points out that Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.9% month-on-month in November, while the October drop was revised downwards to -0.8% MoM, from -0.5% MoM.

Key Quotes

“On the year, industrial production is now down by 4.7%. The drop in industrial production was widely spread across all sectors.”

“At face value, today’s industrial production data has clearly increased the risk of a technical recession in Germany in the second half of 2018.”

“Watch out for tomorrow’s trade data. Another disappointment, combined with the high inventory build-up in 2Q and 3Q, would clearly increase the likelihood of a technical recession.”