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EUR/USD: 100-day MA is proving a tough nut to crack

  • The EUR/USD pair was offered around the 100-day moving average (MA) in Asia.
  • The long-term MA has caught highs on a daily closing basis four times in the last 2.5 weeks despite the falling US-DE yield spread.
  • A daily close above the 100-day MA would strengthen the bull grip.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1438, having faced rejection above the 100-day MA of 1.1370 in Asia.

Notably, the pair has failed four times in the last 2.5 weeks to scale the long-term MA hurdle on a daily closing basis. Moreover, that is somewhat confounding, as the yield differentials have narrowed substantially in the USD-negative manner in the last few days.

For instance, the spread between the US and German two-year government bond yields stood at 300 basis points on Jan. 1 - the lowest level since Apr. 24, 2018. Further, the 10-year yield spread also hit a seven-month low of 240 basis points last week.

Moreover, the yield differentials could drop further in favor of the EUR, courtesy of dovish Fed expectations. So, the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is on the higher side.

That said, the repeated technical failure at the 100-day MA could prove costly, especially if the yield differentials rise sharply in the near future, in which case the low of 1.12 could be breached.

As for today, 1.14 could come into play, if the Eurozone consumer confidence, due at 10:00 GMT misses estimates.

EUR/USD Technical Levels


    Today Last Price: 1.1438
    Today Daily change: -39 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.340%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1477
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1394
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1374
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.148
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1643
    Previous Daily High: 1.1484
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1396
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1586
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1309
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1451
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.143
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1421
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1333
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1509
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1541
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1597


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