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USD/RUB comes under pressure near 67.50 on Brent up move

  • The Russian Ruble accelerates its gains vs. the buck to the 67.50 region.
  • Brent advances around 2% above the $58.00 mark.
  • US Factory Orders, ISM Non-manufacturing next on tap.

The positive momentum around the Russian Ruble is now dragging USD/RUB to test the area of fresh multi-day lows in the mid-67.00s.

USD/RUB up on Brent gains

After testing the psychological 70.00 barrier last week, the pair came under renewed selling pressure in tandem with a moderate recovery in prices of the European reference Brent crude.

In fact, the barrel of Brent crude is up around 2% near the $58.00 mark, coming down after flirting with tops near $59.00 during early trade. Prices of crude oil have been trading on a positive note bolstered by hopes of a US-China trade deal, all amidst an improved sentiment in the risk-on universe.

In the data space, US Factory Orders for the month of November are due later in the NA session seconded by the more relevant December’s ISM Non-manufacturing.

What to look for around RUB

Brent dynamics appear as the main catalyst behind the price action around the Russian currency. In addition, the performance of domestic consumer prices as well as inflation expectations should play a key role in determining the CBR’s monetary policy this year. According to the central bank, inflation is expected to return to the 4% target in H2 2019. Further out, RUB speculative net longs climbed to the highest level since late March 2018 during the week ended on December 18, as per the latest CFTC report.

USD/RUB levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 1.34% at 67.73 and a break below 67.52 (low Jan.7) would aim for 66.82 (21-day SMA) and finally 65.43 (low Nov.22). On the flip side, the initial hurdle aligns at 68.84 (10-day SMA) seconded by 69.94 (high Dec.29) and then 70.58 (2018 high Sep.10).

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