US week ahead: FOMC minutes, CPI and Fed's speeches - Danske Bank
Next week, talks between US and China will take place. Regarding economic events, CPI data and FOMC minutes area likely to be the key events. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the FOMC minutes and a number of speeches from FOMC members will attract a lot of attention next week, along with further developments in the ongoing government shutdown.
“We expect the CPI core index (due out on Friday) rose +0.2% m/m in December implying an unchanged core inflation rate at 2.2% y/y.”
“Given the recession fears in financial markets, keep an eye on the ISM non-manufacturing index on Monday, which remains at a very high level indicating the economy is doing fine. For the same reason, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in December will be interesting to follow on Tuesday.”
“Until the US Congress ends the ongoing government shutdown by passing a budget, data releases from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis are postponed (affecting releases such as new home sales and capital goods).”
“We will be listening very carefully to what the FOMC members have to say next week. On Wednesday, the minutes from the December meeting are due out where we will look for differences in the FOMC members’ views on the economy and markets. Influential members like NY Fed President John Williams and Fed vice chair Richard Clarida both speak next week. New voting members like Evans, Rosengren and Bullard also speak next week.”