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US: NFP to come in around 184k in December - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that today’s main data release is the US NFP and the Bloomberg consensus for December is 184K.

Key Quotes

“The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. Although that is well below the Fed’s estimate of the NAIRU of 4.4%, wage growth is still modest. In fact, average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow down to 3.0% in year-on-year terms, from 3.1%. Note that due to base effects, average hourly earnings growth is set to fall unless we see a substantial rise in month-on-month earnings growth.”

“If the Employment Report meets expectations, it would support the Fed’s case for further rate hikes. However, in our view the FOMC is relying on coincident and lagging indicators, while leading indicators are pointing to an elevated risk of recession. Our baseline scenario is that the Fed pushes through another hike in March, then pauses, but too late to avert a recession in late 2020.”

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