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US: NFP likely to rebound to 190k for December - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US non-farm payrolls to rebound to an above-consensus 190k for December following a larger-than-expected slide to 155k for November.

Key Quotes

“Regional surveys and the manufacturing ISM for December (in which the employment component slipped modestly to a still-solid 56.2) suggest employment likely remained firm in the manufacturing sector and there could be scope for an upside surprise from employment in the services sector. This pattern would be consistent with the December ADP employment report, which surprised sharply to the upside.”

“On the back of this expected job growth, we anticipate the unemployment rate to stay largely unchanged at 3.7%. Lastly, we anticipate wages will rise 0.3% m/m in December, reflecting both continued tightness in the labor market and a favorable reference week. Despite a solid monthly print, base effects should bring down the annual wage growth rate slightly to 3.0% from 3.1% in November.”

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