US: December NFP may add to Fed’s predicament – Standard Chartered
Sonia Meskin, analyst at Standard Chartered, suggests that the December employment report of US is likely to indicate ongoing labour-market strength in contrast to recent financial-market weakness.
“We expect a near-200,000 headline print, a possible modest downtick un U-3 or a modest uptick in the labour participation rate, and average hourly earnings (AHE) growth above 3% y/y.”
“At this stage, we believe that only a very strong headline print combined with a declining unemployment rate or a pronounced pick up in the labour participation rate could sway the Committee back in a hawkish direction. This not a likely outcome for the December employment situation report, in our view. On the other hand, neither is a pronounced labour-market deceleration of a sub-100,000 headline gain, higher unemployment rate or a sub 3.0% y/y wage growth.”