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UK: No-deal exit is a distinct possibility - Standard Chartered

"While most UK parliamentarians are against a no-deal exit outcome, it remains a distinct possibility given that it is the default outcome if no alternative agreement is reached by 29 March," notes Christopher Graham, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

Key quotes

"Parliament could apply political pressure on the government to rule out a no-deal exit, such as by amending the meaningful vote (to rule out no deal or even revoke Article 50), holding up other key pieces of legislation, or proposing a motion of no confidence in the government. If a no-deal exit occurred, there would be no 21-month transition period for the UK, but still potential for specific deals to be brokered between the UK and EU to extend or replicate existing bilateral arrangements in key areas of concern to both sides."

"The economic impact will depend on how authorities plan for a no-deal exit between now and 29 March, whether they implement adequate safeguards for the worst-hit sectors of the UK economy, and the fiscal and monetary policy response delivered in the aftermath. However, it will be difficult to avoid at least one quarter of negative growth, in our view, and recession risks are high."

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