Emerging Markets: Differentiation needed in 2019 - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities suggest that with global growth momentum skewed to the downside, there seems to be little in the way of high vol and material underperformance risks for EMs ahead in 2019.
“Markets should remain focused on global and idiosyncratic risks for now. Bullish signals exist too, however, but market sensitivity to them will stay subdued in the absence of any sustained improvement in risk appetite.”
“We recommend more discrimination. We are long current account deficit currencies in Asia (IDR, PHP, INR) vs surplus currencies (KRW, TWD, SGD). We turned bullish on Brazil vs bearish on Mexico. We like to be long PLN, HUF, RUB and ZAR. We remain bearish TRY and Turkey rates.”