EUR/USD: Market reluctant to break higher - Commerzbank
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD pair is likely to consolidate further as the market seems reluctant to break higher at this stage as depicted by it’s emphatic rejection from 1.1500 (major key day reversal).
“Dips lower should find initial support at the 1.1267 end of November low. The market faces tough overhead resistance at the 2018-2019 downtrend at 1.1451 and the 1.1500 zone but upside risks are growing longer term and a close above here (preferably a weekly close) would trigger a recovery to the 1.1623 October high and the 1.1654 200 day ma.”
“Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.”
“Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1804 back on the cards.”