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Turkey: Headline CPI inflation likely to fall to 20.5% Y/Y in December - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are points out that Turkey’s December headline CPI inflation is expected by the consensus to fall to 20.5% Y/Y from a prior 21.6%.

Key Quotes

“In December USDTRY was relatively stable following on from three months of sharp falls, and global oil prices continued to tumble. Along with clear signs that domestic demand is slowing, this should all bode well for the near-term inflation outlook. That said, our regression model forecasts headline inflation of 21.5% Y/Y, only a bit below November's number. However, there are signs that recently the rate of FX pass-though has speeded up from what has historically been the norm, so we think the risks are probably skewed towards the number being below 21.5%. The consensus expects core inflation to be 19.8% Y/Y in December, down from the prior 20.7%.”

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