Turkey: Challenging year ahead – Rabobank
Piotr Matys, EM FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that the Turkish lira is the worst performer amongst its EM peers at the start of 2019, which is likely to be a challenging year for Turkey.
“The latest PMI survey by Istanbul Chamber of Industry and IHS Markit indicated that business conditions remained tough in Turkey’s manufacturing sector at the end of 2018. The headline PMI index fell further into the contraction territory of 44.2 in December from already weak 44.7 in November.”
“On the positive note, output and new orders eased at lower rates than in November. A relatively stable Turkish lira contributed to a further easing in the rate of input cost inflation allowing manufactures to lower their prices.”