Markets: Are trade wars the biggest risk? – Westpac

David Goodman, analyst at Westpac, points out that the global markets has been swept away from a groundswell of protectionism and isolationism and threatened to reverse decades of global integration.

Key Quotes

“Trade tensions were a clear theme through 2018, impacting trade sensitive bellwethers (particularly AUD), but the polite “Trade Tension” euphemism has now been replaced with “Trade Wars” as US protectionist rhetoric accelerates.”

“While the recent Trump-XI G20 meeting saw a ceasefire, the 90 day deadline will make late February/early March another critical flashpoint for markets.”

“Ultimately, we believe we will see further US tariffs in 2019, and how this protectionism and isolationism thematic progresses through 2019 will be critical for geopolitics as well as markets.”