US: Growth to settle back near trend - Westpac
According to analysts at Westpac, almost all in the market have a similar expectation regarding economic growth, but suggests that the sentiment has clearly shifted nonetheless.
“The uncertainty centres on trade tensions between the US and China; persistent political malaise in Europe; with benign US inﬂation prospects also in the mix.”
“Seeing sentiment as ephemeral, we instead prefer to focus on the underlying trends in the real economy. That leads us to believe four more hikes will be delivered. The anticipated consequence for the US dollar would be a further appreciation to around 100 on a DXY basis – about 3% higher than the current level. That peak will most likely coincide with a September 2019 end to rate hikes. Thereafter, we foresee a reversal of fortunes for the US dollar in 2020, as US growth settles back near trend, bringing an end to the currency’s long period of outperformance.”