US: NFP likely to print 165,000 in December – ING

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, suggests that after the US non-farm payrolls rose a slightly disappointing 155,000 in November, they are expecting to see December payrolls growth coming in at around 165,000 versus the 180,000 consensus.

Key Quotes

“2018 is on course to be the best year for job creation since 2015. On average 206,000 jobs were added in each of the first 11 months of 2018 versus the 182,000 average for 2017 as a whole and the 195,000 average for 2016. However, we think 2019 will see slower growth with the December 2018 report offering a prelude for this.”

“So despite strong labour demand readings from the likes of the ISM reports and the decent chance of a rebound following last month’s surprise slowdown we see payrolls growth coming in at around 165,000 versus the 180,000 consensus. The range of forecasts amongst economists is 160-215,000.”