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USD\SGD to gradually drift towards 1.40 - UOB

In view of analysts at UOB, the trajectory for SGD has little changed and is still likely to mirror the gradual weakness of the CNY in 1H19.

Key Quotes

“We maintain our point forecasts for USD/ SGD at 1.39 in 1Q19, 1.40 in 2Q19, 1.41 in 3Q and 4Q19. As we reach the inflection point in FED hiking process towards the end of the year, USD/SGD may well top out just above 1.40 alongside USD/CNY and the rest of USD/Asia.”

“It is noted that in the background, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened monetary policy twice in Apr and Oct 18 and this has kept the SGD on a stronger relative note compared to the rest of USD/Asia. As such, the risk for the SGD is such that should the weakness in Singapore’s growth and inflation dynamics intensify in 2019 and the MAS decides to ease off on the stronger pace of SGD appreciation, then the SGD may well have to play catch up with the rest of Asian FX weakness, resulting in a stronger push in USD/SGD above 1.40. At the moment, this risk is not our base case.”

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