Singapore: Q4 growth likely stayed modest – Standard Chartered
Analysts at Standard Chartered are estimating Singapore’s Q4 GDP growth likely to print 2.2% y/y, similar to Q3, and capped by high base effects.
“Manufacturing-sector growth likely remained modest, but may have picked up slightly from 3.6% recorded in Q3. October-November 2018 industrial production (IP) expanded 6.5% y/y, but December faces a slightly unfavourable base effect. The manufacturing sector outlook remains challenging. Headline PMI growth contracted to 2.7% y/y in November, the second consecutive month of y/y decline, while the electronics PMI fell below 50 in November for the first time since July 2016.”
“Our GDP growth tracker suggests upside risk to our Q4 GDP growth forecast. Our tracker is more reliant on readily available externally driven activity data, such as IP, which is still growing at a faster pace (albeit moderating) than domestically oriented sectors. We are cautious about being overly optimistic, as the services-sector recovery is tenuous.”
“We expect growth to moderate in 2019, as external demand has likely peaked.”