US: NFP likely to print 175k for December - NBF
Analysts at NBF suggest that in the US, the most important piece of news will be non-farm payrolls for December and after the jobless claims remained extremely low in the month, pointing to a very low rate of layoffs.
“Hiring, meanwhile, may have picked up a little from the prior month’s tepid pace, in line with what was reported in the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys. Accordingly, we’re calling for a +175K print. The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay put at 3.7% if, as we believe, the household survey shows a modest increase in employment following three stellar months.”
“In other news, the ISM manufacturing index could have decreased in December, echoing the decline of the Fed’s regional manufacturing indices. The week will also provide information about the housing market in November with the release of pending and new homes sales data. A rebound is expected for the latter indicator following its worst 7-month stretch since 2010 (-19.0% between March and October).”
“We’ll also keep an eye on the release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December.”