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WTI's indicator divergences should be a warning to bulls, 61.8% fibo under pressure

  • WTI continues in its decline, printing fresh lows with eyes on a full retracement of the summer 2017 lows on the $42 handle. 
  • Oil futures continue to bleed following Wednesday's FOMC announcements while investor's continue to fret oversupply and demand issues. 
  • Indicator divergence, along with fibo support is a warning to bears. 

The path of least resistance is lower for oil and yesterday's semi dovish hike has left the door open for at least two interest rate hikes in 2019 instead of potentially none at all, of which the street was positioning for. However, the toxic cocktail of downside revisions to GDP 2018/19 as well as continued rate hikes is a hard pill to swallow for the oil market. 

On the flip side

On the other hand, it appears that Saudi Arabi is looking to reduce its output by about 322,000 barrels a day from October, instead of the 250,000 barrels a day announced at the OPEC meeting earlier this month, according to the WSJ.  Additionally, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that domestic crude supplies fell by 500,000 barrels for the week ending Dec. 14. However, that was less than the decline than the 3 million barrel-fall expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts.

WTI levels

The price is on the verge of breaching the 2016 uptrend's 61.8% fibo located at $45.45. RSI is now oversold on the weekly charts, although that is not to say the price cannot fall further before a correction might be due. However, there is some slight bullish divergence on the daily RSI to price action and more so on the 4hr outlook which could result in a bid in oil at this juncture before S2 at 45.45. MACD is also looking to turn up. On the flipside, bulls need to get back above 51.30, as the 50% level of the same range.

  • Support levels: 45.45 44.46 39.76
  • Resistance levels: 47.45 48.46  49.45

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