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USD/JPY: 100-day MA support is holding ground for the 10th time on hawkish Fed hike

  • The USD/JPY pair is struggling to beat the crucial 100-day moving average (MA) for the tenth time on the back of hawkish Fed hike.
  • The US central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points as expected, but signaled more rate rises in 2019, dashing hopes of a rate hike pause.
  • Potential risk aversion in the equities may keep gains in USD/JPY under check.

The USD/JPY pair has bounced off the 100-day MA in Asia, having defended the MA line on a closing basis yesterday.

Dollar selling had gathered pace ahead of the Fed on speculation that the US central bank would signal a rate hike pause or at most one rate hike next year. The Fed, however, left the investors behind the curve by signaling that there could be two rate hikes in 2019.

As a result, USD/JPY picked up a bid at the seven-week low of 112.09 and closed at 112.47 - just above the 100-day MA. Essentially, the pair defended the key MA support for the ninth time in the last eight months.

More importantly, with the S&P 500 futures showing signs of life, the pair is eyeing a 10th successful defense of the long-term MA support.

As of writing, the pair is trading at 112.51 and the 100-day MA is located at 112.41. The focus now is on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision. The Japanese central bank is expected to keep key policy tools unchanged and retain the dovish forward guidance.

USD/JPY may fall back below the 100-day MA line if the global equity trade risk-averse in response to hawkish Fed, pushing the treasury yields lower. Technically speaking, the bears are likely to feel emboldened after the MA lien is breached on a daily closing basis.

USD/JPY Technical Levels


    Today Last Price: 112.51
    Today Daily change: -8.0 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0711%
    Today Daily Open: 112.59
    Previous Daily SMA20: 113.18
    Previous Daily SMA50: 112.99
    Previous Daily SMA100: 112.41
    Previous Daily SMA200: 110.85
    Previous Daily High: 112.64
    Previous Daily Low: 112.09
    Previous Weekly High: 113.71
    Previous Weekly Low: 112.24
    Previous Monthly High: 114.25
    Previous Monthly Low: 112.3
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 112.43
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 112.3
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 112.24
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 111.88
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 111.68
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 112.8
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 113
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 113.35


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