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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: 100-day MA support is being put to test ahead of the Fed

The USD/JPY bulls need to defend the 100-day moving average (MA) on a daily closing basis, else a deeper drop to levels below 110.00 (psychological support) could unfold in January.

Daily chart

As seen above, the pair has charted bullish higher-lows along the 100-day MA in the last nine months. As a result, a daily close below that level would imply a bullish-to-bearish trend change - the rally from the March low of 104.63 has ended and the bears have regained control.

The pair will likely close well below the 100-day MA if the Fed drops a strong hint of a rate hike pause in 2019.

However, if the Fed sounds less dovish-than-expected, then the dollar bulls will likely make a strong comeback.

It is worth noting that the investors are currently pricing in a single rate hike for 2019 and hence would fall behind the curve if the central bank forecasts two rate hikes in 2019.

Trend: Bearish below 100-day MA


    Today Last Price: 112.33
    Today Daily change: -23 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.204%
    Today Daily Open: 112.56
    Previous Daily SMA20: 113.2
    Previous Daily SMA50: 112.98
    Previous Daily SMA100: 112.4
    Previous Daily SMA200: 110.82
    Previous Daily High: 112.86
    Previous Daily Low: 112.25
    Previous Weekly High: 113.71
    Previous Weekly Low: 112.24
    Previous Monthly High: 114.25
    Previous Monthly Low: 112.3
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 112.48
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 112.63
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 112.25
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 111.94
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 111.63
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 112.87
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 113.18
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 113.49


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