USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Bull flag on the hourly chart

• The USD/CNH pair is trapped in a bull flag -  a bullish continuation pattern - on the hourly chart.
• A convincing break above 6.8965 (upper edge of the flag) would signal a continuation of the rally from the Dec. 13 low of 6.8563 and would open the doors to 6.9516 (target as per the measured move method, that is, pole height added to breakout price).
• The bull breakout, however, may end up trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market, if the Fed sounds less dovish than expected.  The central bank is expected to remove one hike from the dots in the 2019-2020 period to reflect that the economic outlook is modestly lower than it was in September.
• A downside break of the flag would weaken the bullish pressure. Notably, a move below 6.8563 (recent higher low on the daily chart) could prove costly.

Hourly Chart

Trend: Bullish above 6.8965