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USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Bull flag on the hourly chart

  • The USD/CNH pair is trapped in a bull flag -  a bullish continuation pattern - on the hourly chart.
  • A convincing break above 6.8965 (upper edge of the flag) would signal a continuation of the rally from the Dec. 13 low of 6.8563 and would open the doors to 6.9516 (target as per the measured move method, that is, pole height added to breakout price).
  • The bull breakout, however, may end up trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market, if the Fed sounds less dovish than expected.  The central bank is expected to remove one hike from the dots in the 2019-2020 period to reflect that the economic outlook is modestly lower than it was in September.
  • A downside break of the flag would weaken the bullish pressure. Notably, a move below 6.8563 (recent higher low on the daily chart) could prove costly.

Hourly Chart

Trend: Bullish above 6.8965


    Today Last Price: 6.8953
    Today Daily change: -31 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0449%
    Today Daily Open: 6.8984
    Previous Daily SMA20: 6.9087
    Previous Daily SMA50: 6.9237
    Previous Daily SMA100: 6.891
    Previous Daily SMA200: 6.6653
    Previous Daily High: 6.9054
    Previous Daily Low: 6.8783
    Previous Weekly High: 6.9228
    Previous Weekly Low: 6.8566
    Previous Monthly High: 6.9808
    Previous Monthly Low: 6.8525
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.8886
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.895
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.8827
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.867
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.8557
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.9098
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.9211
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.9368


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