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NZ confidence: key RBNZ risk retreats - TDS

Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities point out that after sinking to a decade-low of -50 in August, New Zealand economy’s December confidence perked up from -37 to -24, and own activity +8 to +14.

Key Quotes

“The details were constructive: exports +14 (prior +8) investment +4 the first positive in months, dwelling construction leaps to +33, and employment up from +2 to +7. Inflation expectations eased from 2.29% to 2.15% but still "firmly anchored" at 2% as the RBNZ expects.”

“On Thursday we look for buoyant Q3 GDP: upside to mkt +0.6%/q and RBNZ at +0.7%/q. We see trade +0.8%pts (confirmed tomorrow), public spending +0.5%/q, little contribution from dwelling construction and investment, +0.3%pts from consumption and a decent drag from inventories (-0.8%pts). Overall we look for +1.0%/q or 2.8%/y, and NZD outperformance into year end.”

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