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When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

 RBA minutes overview

The minutes from the RBA Board’s 4th Dec meeting are due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, 0030 GMT, after the RBA, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting in Dec, unchanged yet again. 

There are not expected to be anything particularly market moving today as the market has already factored in the GDP disappointment and anything further on the economy is old news. So, the main focus will stay with the housing market, including the statement’s line about “some lenders having a reduced appetite to lend.” 

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand banking group explained that there may be an increased focus here given the recent shift in market pricing. The analysts said that they "will watch the tone around housing after the wording became more cautious in the post-meeting statement.”

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

Despite a softer dollar on Monday, AUD/USD has been weighed by soured risk appetite and AUD/JPY. Should the minutes provide a bearish tint on the economy, the pair could wobble to trade back below the pivot of 0.7180 with the price already submerged below a collection of bearish moving averages around the 23.6% Fibo at 0.7179. on the flipside, R1 is located at 0.7218.

Key notes:

  • AUD/USD moves sideways below 0.72 as attention turns to RBA minutes
  • AUD/USD analysis: mounting pressure on equities' collapse

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

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