China's Yuan trading likely to get more volatile - Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs’ economists including MK Tang wrote in a note published on Monday, the USD/CNY pairing is likely to get more volatile in time as the country pushes greater international use of the Yuan.
Key Quotes (via Bloomberg):
China’s current account will tip into deficit in coming years, in the view of many strategists, as its increasingly large economy continues to grow faster than the rest of the world.
“After a brief hiatus in the last couple of years, global promotion of the RMB will likely be supported with a greater sense of urgency.”
One occurrence that’s likely to come is a convergence between the Yuan traded offshore, known as CNH, and that traded onshore, known as CNY, the economists argued.
Their analysis of discrepancies between the two suggested that Yuan volatility would be “much closer to that of other major currencies” once exchange-rate controls were eased.
“A truly global currency is one whose worth should be essentially indifferent to country boundaries.”
“Should CNY’s fluctuations one day indeed become as large as those of other major currencies, it may also significantly push up the volatility of the other Asian” emerging-market currencies.”