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EUR/USD: Focus on risk sentiment

  • EUR/USD suffered a contracting triangle breakdown on Friday, courtesy of heightened global growth fears and resulting risk aversion in the equities.
  • The pair could suffer a deeper drop toward 1.1215 if the equity markets continue to slide.
  • The USD will likely pick up a strong bid later in the week if the Fed sounds less dovish-than-expected.

The American dollar could continue to draw bids, sending the EUR/USD pair lower toward the recent low of 1.1215 if the global equities remain risk-averse on mounting global growth fears.

The technical biased has already turned bearish as Friday's close of 1.1303 confirmed a symmetrical triangle breakdown - a bearish continuation pattern, which indicates the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has resumed.

The US stocks turned risk averse on Friday, with S&P 500 falling 1.2 percent, after a below-forecast China's retail sales, industrial production data amplified fears of a global growth slowdown. The dismal European services and manufacturing surveys further added to the malaise. More importantly, these data points overshadowed easing concerns regarding Italy's budget and boosted the haven demand for the US dollar.

The greenback could continue to climb higher, validating the bearish breakdown on the EUR/USD chart, if the equities extend Friday's losses. The pair, however, may have a relook at the former support-turned-resistance of the lower edge of the triangle if the equities trade in green as hinted by the 0.32 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.

The Eurozone trade balance and the November CPI, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, may not have a big impact on the EUR pairs.

Big moves can be seen later in the week after Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. The pair could set new 2018 lows below 1.1215 if the US central bank sounds less dovish-than-expected, forcing markets to scale back expectations of a rate hike pause in 2019.

The markets are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points and signal a wait-and-see approach for 2019.

EUR/USD Technical Levels


    Today Last Price: 1.1311
    Today Daily change: 10 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0885%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1301
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.136
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1399
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1498
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1717
    Previous Daily High: 1.1374
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1269
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1444
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1269
    Previous Monthly High: 1.15
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1216
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1309
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1334
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1256
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1211
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1152
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.136
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1419
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1464


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