US Retail Sales: Consumer spending on pace for a decent Q4 - Wells Fargo

Today’s data showed that retail sales rose 0.2% in November in the US.  According to analysts from Wells Fargo, the gains in control group sales suggests consumer spending is on track to finish the year with momentum.

Key Quotes: 

“Despite worries about slower growth in other parts of the economy, the surge in control group sales suggests consumer spending is on track to finish the year with momentum. The headline print was held back by the fact that gas prices in November were off by about a third from where they were in October.” 

“This is the first month for holiday sales and despite some earlier downward revisions, our forecast for a 4.5% increase over last year’s holiday spending number appears to be on track. We’d need to see a December increase of 0.3% in holiday-related outlays to hit our target. Further out, we’re less sanguine on the consumer. Come January, the holiday bills come due, and as we hit the anniversary of tax cuts, the year-to-year comps get tougher.”