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Australia: MYEFO to confirm that revenue growth is strong - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, Australia’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) is expected to confirm that revenue growth is strong, and budget surpluses are achievable from next year.

Key Quotes

“In the four months to Oct, revenues are 10.8% higher than a year ago, led by company tax revenue (+21.6%) and PAYE returns (+7.0%) while GST is 5.3% higher. The May budget expected revenues to be 6% higher this year. Now that the Morrison government has announced an early 2 April 2019 Budget, ahead of a likely May 2019 election, this report should be a mark-to-market exercise with ay provision for pre-election sweeteners, without being specific.”

“Treasury in May expected GDP to lift by 3% in 2019 and 2020 and CPI to lift by 2¼% and 2½% respectively, and the unemployment rate to be flat at 5¼%. We expect a quarter-point downgrade to inflation and the unemployment rate, but leave GDP at 3%.”

“Overall, we expect the deficit for 2018-19 to be lowered to -$A9b, or -0.5% of GDP and a larger surplus of $A2.5b or +0.1% of GDP for 2019-20. AOFM will update the bond program, either Monday or Tuesday.”

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