Copper prices weighed by switch in trade sentiment, eyes 2.7563
- Metal prices got a boost with improved optimism over Sino/US trade relations.
- Copper had gone on to make a fresh one-week high of $2.8040lb but dropped as the dollar firmed.
There has been a consistent flow of positive comments from Chinese officials that prove they are dedicated to reaching a trade deal before Trump's deadline of March 1st and news that China might even delay its 'Made in China 2025' strategy by a decade lifted the market's spirits.
The 'Made in China 2025' has been a thorn in the side for Trump and winning such concessions should be a boost to his own Make America Great again administration's efforts. The two sides appear to be very committed to reaching a trade deal this time, and that is a huge plus for risk sentiment into the final trading weeks of the year which boosted the price of base metals.
China has said it will reduce tariffs on imported autos, (Underlying support for palladium), while President Trump indicated he would intervene in the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou if it would help ensure a trade deal with China. China has also made the first big US soybean purchase since the Trump-Xi tariff war truce made.
Copper flips over
Copper had gone on to make a fresh one-week high of $2.8040lb but dropped as the dollar firmed at the same time that news wires were reporting that China had arrested a second Canadian diplomat in apparent retaliation for Meng’s arrest, while reports surfaced today that President Trump’s aids were warning the president that his authority to intervene in the affair is limited, tempering gains in base metals and risk assets.
- "We continue to see a soft floor in the near-term. And, we estimate that further weakness in copper could trigger CTAs to significantly increase their shorts, which could particularly weigh on prices given that discretionary traders remain on the sidelines, while liquidity is typically lighter in the final weeks of December,"
analysts at TD Securities explained.
- Support levels: 2.7563 2.7451 2.7333
- Resistance levels: 2.7793 2.7911 2.8023
The price has been consolidating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibo since Sep 's recovery from the 2.55 handle. Daily RSI is neutral while DMIs chop around in positive territory, due a negative correction with price rejected heavily leaving a bearish wick on the Japanese candlestick.