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China: Retail sales likely to pick up - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that Chinese retail sales slowed to a 5-month low in Oct to 8.6% y/y, but could see some respite in Nov, with consensus looking for a pick up to 8.8% y/y.

Key Quotes

“This ought to keep the YTD pace at 9.2% y/y.”

“Industrial production has held up better although unless the tariffs threat lifts, prospects remain downbeat as reflected in manufacturing PMIs just above the 50 contraction level.”

“Fixed assets investment appears to have bottomed out and could show a further gain in October (consensus 5.9%), helped by government stimulus measures.”

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