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ECB Preview: End of QE in December? - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they agree with the consensus that the ECB is almost universally expected to end QE in today’s meeting and further expects it to clarify that reinvestments will continue until "after the ECB begins to raise rates."

Key Quotes

“We also expect a smoother reinvestment profile to ease market liquidity, and more importantly for market sentiment, provide a mild skew of reinvesting marginally more maturing private sector debt into corporates, providing a mild credit easing.”

“We expect the ECB will leave the door open for rollover TLTROs, but it is unlikely to announce these until next year. The ECB also releases new projections. We expect relatively minor revisions, despite weaker 2018 growth and lower oil prices, and we do not expect them to suggest a downward bias to the risks.”

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