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GBP/USD to face earnings data with Brexit vote off the table

  • PM May's refusal to submit her Withdrawal Proposal to the UK parliament yesterday will see plenty of Brexit rhetoric in the headlines today.
  • Earnings data is on the docket, but soft economic readings for the UK lately could see the Cable in a weakened position once again.

GBP/USD is currently grinding its way back above 1.2580 following Monday's decline from the 1.2770 region, fueled by the news that Prime Minister Theresa May would pulling her Brexit Withdrawal Proposal from the parliamentary vote that was slated for today in the UK's House of Commons, and the Cable heads into Tuesday that promises plenty of talking heads delivering a barrage of Brexit-focused headlines, as well as plenty of high-impact data on the offering.

With Tuesday's Brexit deal vote now canceled by PM May, who pulled the proposal off of the table after it became clear that her divorce bill had no hope of passing in the UK parliamentary vote, the focus will now be on what the next steps of Brexit will be as May heads back to Brussels in a bid to secure further concessions from European Union leaders, who have so far given very little middle ground.

Key UK data will be dropping early in the London market session, with Average Earnings, ILO Unemployment, and Claimant Counts all dropping at 09:30 GMT. Average Earning (excluding bonuses) for the 3rd quarter are expected to hold steady at 3.2%, alongside the ILO Unemployment Rate, which is forecast to remain at 4.1%, while the Claimant Count Change from October was seen at 20.2 thousand, but the key reading for the day will be earnings, and a flubbed release could easily see the Cable take another header below 1.2500.

GBP/USD Levels to watch

The Sterling's corrective bounce following PM May's withdrawal of her divorce bill sees limited upside, and as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted, shortside interest remains strong:

The GBP/USD pair bounced from the mentioned low but just in corrective mode after hitting 1.25, and by no means changing the negative technical stance. Having spent the second half of the last week struggling with a daily descendant trend line, it finally fell below it, now trading over 100 pips from it. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA converges with the mentioned trend line, as technical indicators maintain their downward slopes around oversold readings, signaling strong selling interest. The next big support, should the 1.2500 figure gets broken, is the 1.2330/5 price zone, where the pair has multiple weekly lows and highs back from 2016 and 2017.  

Support levels: 1.2500 1.2465 1.2430

Resistance levels: 1.2590 1.2640 1.2675

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