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Key economic events in the day ahead - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities enlist the key event risks slated for release in the day ahead.

Key Quotes:

NOK We see small downside risks to headline inflation in October (TD: 2.9%, mkt: 3.1% y/y) but stems primarily from a different view in energy prices. For underlying CPI-ATE inflation, we are on the market consensus looking for a 1.9% y/y gain, just a tick below the Norges Bank's target, and giving them continued comfort in expecting a 2019Q1 rate hike.

GBP We look for an ongoing tepid UK economy with growth of just 0.1% m/m in October (mkt: 0.1%), on the back of continued gains in manufacturing, a drag from construction, and a small gain in services output. The UK economy continues to remain lifeless though the latter part of the year, and prospects for a year-end recovery remain low. The ECJ publishes its judgment on whether the UK can unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notification. Last week's Advocate General opinion suggested this was possible, but in more political decisions, the judgment can often come down against the opinion. The decision is due at 8am GMT.

TRY Q3 GDP is expected to drop substantially to 2.3% Y/Y (-1.2% Q/Q, SA WDA) from a prior 5.2% Y/Y. Turkey's economy has significantly slowed down, and possibly even contracted, during the course of the July-September period. As the economic rebalancing has just started, we expect real GDP growth to fall by -1.5% Y/Y in 2019.

USD JOLTS job openings for October will give an update on shortages in the labor market.

CAD TD looks for housing starts to slow to a 195k pace in November on a moderation in multi-unit construction. October building permits will be released shortly afterward.”

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