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Forex: USD/JPY on track to 100.00; Aso jawboning just a little bump

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/JPY continues its incessant rise along the Asian session as the big round number 100.00 nears in the horizon. The continuation of bullish tendencies saw the pair net another +184 pips on Monday, which adds to the +116 pips scored last Friday and the +320 pips obtained last Thursday, day when the BoJ aggressiveness shocked the market.

While the pair may face some short-lived bumps on its northbound trip, one example being current headlines crossing the wires, in which Japanese FinMin Mr. Aso suggested that the excessive Yen gain has been corrected, - probably some buyers with weak stops may have been wiped out on the 35 pip drop from 99.64 to 99.26 decline - the reality is that it will take a lot more than just some mild jawboning to dethrone the Yen as the currency of choice to sell.

On the upside, as a magnet, the 100.00 appears to be the next upside target that real money buyers and leveraged players might be aiming for. From a weekly perspective, the area 100.00 up to 101.40 is likely to act as supply potentially slowing down the rally. The supply mentioned comes after a rise-base-drop structure produced back in April 2009.

On the downside, the most imminent demand level is spotted at 98.80/40, after a rise-pause-rise structure formed along the NY session, before price took off, suggesting unfilled buy orders may remain at that level.

According to Boris Schlossberg, co-founder at BKAssetManagement: "The pressure to run the stops at 100 will be immense, and barring any sudden spike in risk aversion, the pair is likely to roll through that level as momentum remains relentless."

Meanwhile, Sean Lee, founder at FXWW, notes: "USD/JPY continues on its inexorable march towards 100.00. There are likely to be barriers at this level which may slow things down but the next technical resistance of note is a weekly high at 101.40."

BoJ minutes a non-event

No much to read into the BoJ minutes just published as the report still makes references to the policy views expressed by the old central bank leadership on their last meeting on March 6 and 7, before new chief Kuroda took over. It is probably one of the most irrelevant releases year to date, as the monetary policy path has been dramatically shifted since last Thursday, day when a new radical change in the tools employed to stimulate the Japanese economy was unveiled to the world.
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