Apr 3, 2013
Forex Flash: BoE may ease further in May or August after more muddling through – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “Not enough growth” is what TD Securities point as the superficial problem in the UK with no doubt, but the BoE is conflicted as to what the underlying afflictions are, as well as what the potential remedies would be. “The plan continues to be targeting pockets of weakness as best as possible”, they wrote, adding that downside data surprises through Q1 increase the risk of BoE action, but they continue to demand more justification before providing broad stimulus like QE. “If the economy continues to muddle through, May or August do become potential dates for further easing, but the form is wide open”, wrote analyst Richard Kelly, seeing hope of more FLS to replace expensive market funding with cheap central bank cash as Bank’s wholesale funding costs continue to be too high. That would bringing down lending rates and boosting credit. “We have seen some of this, and in fact, we have seen more impact on mortgage rates than we expected”, Kelly added, also expecting the supply incentive for banks to lend to be further complemented by HMTs augmentation of home buying demand schemes in the budget. “But with the Financial Policy Committee having reinforced the need, principally of RBS and Lloyds, to rebuild further capital this year that is likely going to come at the expense of lending growth. Repairing balance sheets and mitigating macroprudential risks continues to limit monetary stimulus effectiveness”, they concluded.