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Forex Flash: RBA rate call in May next potential date to cut - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Nomura, yesterday's RBA monetary policy statement barely changed its position from March, still keeping the door open for further rate cuts.

From Nomura: "The rates market has slowly been unwinding rate cut expectations over the past few weeks after some commentators suggested the bias to ease would change. As the easing bias was left unchanged from March, any moves to price in near-term cuts will likely be limited. Conversely, the fact that the easing bias was retained could be taken as a sign that the RBA wishes to keep its option to ease should conditions warrant such a move."

The bank adds: "While the statement is largely neutral, in our opinion, there is a little more concern over the continued strength of the AUD and the trade-weighted index, with the exchange rate about 3% higher since the last meeting. We continue to believe that the RBA prefers to wait for the CPI data release on 27 April before deciding whether to cut rates or to remove its easing bias, which makes May the next realistic potential date to cut rates."

Commodities Brief: Silver prints fresh 7-month low

In a day when natural correlations between Gold and USD have turned back to natural, Gold dipped more than $25 from weekly highs yesterday at $1604 for the June contract, the one most traded at the moment by far, down to fresh 3-week lows at $1574, while USD climbed from 6-day lows at 82.5 to current 82.89, still capped below the key 83 level.
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Forex: AUD/USD back to pre-RBA levels above 1.0450

AUD/USD is last at 1.0453, off recent session lows at 1.0440, and retracing from yesterday's weekly highs at 1.0480 following RBA keeping interest rates on hold. The pair is up +0.28% since previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday and about the same for the week, being third strongest currency among majors behind Yen and Kiwi. Key risk event for Aussie will come at 00:30 GMT in the form of Aus trade balance.
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