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Forex Flash: EUR in focus as Draghi puts currency in perspective – UBS

Questions on the euro's current exchange rates aside, a key topic of Draghi's press conference today will be the recent LTRO repayments. According to Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS, “It is doubtful that the ECB will look upon the current numbers unfavorably, especially if it allows banks to show strength.”

Yet, “too much of a good thing might also be unwelcome: banks' bifurcation worries aside, if the pace of repayment does lead to higher forward EONIA and outright ECB tightening due to balance sheet shrinkage, the current positive link between short-rates and the euro will only strengthen. No one likely expects the ECB to talk down the currency, but inadvertently talking it up perhaps should also be avoided for now.” Berry adds.

Forex: EUR/USD around 1.3570 after German data

The bloc currency remained almost indifferent to the German data during December, showing that the industrial production in the firs economy grew 0.3% on a monthly basis, while it...
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Forex Flash: ECB Draghi's refusal to play Hollande's game to strengthen EUR/USD - Commerzbank

Recent euro strength has turned into a debate, initiated mainly by France, and is likely to become the centre of attention at today's ECB press conference. Commerzbank analysts don't see any excpectional move (15 cent in approx. 6 months), but Draghi should be forced to speak about the issue. “At today’s press conference ECB president Mario Draghi will probably only refer to the on-going improvement of the situation in the euro zone with reference to the debate surrounding the alleged euro strength”, wrote analyst Lutz Karpowitz, pointing also to the falling target balances interest rates on borrowings for companies in the different countries that have increasingly converged recently.
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