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Forex Flash: Seasonal patterns tend to favor JPY in Mar/Apr/May period – TDS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “Beyond the debate regarding whether seasonal trends exist or not, there are limits to seasonal trend analysis,” say Toronto based FX Research Team at TD Securities. “Varying the period under scrutiny can produce significantly different results,” the Team adds, “and the limited data set means that the data can provide some guidelines at best rather than hard or fast rules.”

“Repatriation has been less of a factor in recent years but that has not stopped some relatively big swings occurring around this time of year,” the analysts note. “However, though we continue to think that current USD/JPY levels are over-extended and that a good deal of still pending BoJ easing is priced in to the market at current levels, USD/JPY losses may be mitigated in the early stages of the New fiscal year if Japanese investors adjust (reduce) USD hedges for the coming fiscal year on the assumption that the JPY has further to fall – or if next week’s BoJ policy meeting manages to surprise,” TDS expands.

“We think the medium-term direction for USD/JPY remains higher but we don’t want to chase the USD up right here. Recent history suggests that the bull trend will moderate in the next few months and that the JPY may even regain a little more strength,” they conclude.

Forex: USD/JPY upside momentum to remain - UBS

While USD/JPY is struggling to hold up above the 94.00 handle, following disappointing domestic data in Japan, next Thurs 04 BoJ meeting is one of most anticipated events ahead, and “BoJ Governor Kuroda will be aiming to impress with more easing,” says FX Strategy Team at UBS.
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Forex: EUR/USD capped below 1.2840

EUR/USD spiked in early Tokyo trade to fresh session highs at 1.2837 on the back of a USD move lower across the board, last trading at 1.2828, slightly off those mentioned session highs. The pair has managed to recover above the 1.2800 handle despite all the bad news surrounding the Euro land at the moment, printing a double low at the 1.2750 price area, following yesterday's soft German jobs data.
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