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Forex Flash: Shorting the AUD crosses is recommended – UBS

The AUD fortified during the Asian session as the January unemployment came in at +10.4 (cons. +5k). In addition, the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4% from 5.5%. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “Our economists note however that business intentions fell, so the market should perhaps reserve judgment until the February 28th capex survey.”

For now, “carry ad allocation flows will continue to contain the AUD/USD downside on the margins, and we prefer to stay short the currencies on the crosses, holding short the AUD/NZD as a trade recommendation.” Berry adds.

Ahead today, the main events are with the central banking community in Europe. The ECB and BoE are both expected to maintain unchanged policies, but the spotlight will be on the language of Messrs Draghi and Carney. The former will need to strike the right balance between maintaining optimism and guarding against complacency, while the incoming BoE Governor will face tough questioning by parliamentarians on how he plans to change monetary policy, if at all – expect the phrase 'currency war' to feature at some point as well.

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