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Forex Flash: Canada CPI to increase by 0.8% (MoM) in February – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect a “dramatic jump in energy prices to have reversed the steady slide in headline CPI inflation, with the all-items price index forecast to have increased by 0.8% m/m in February, a tad higher than the 0.7% consensus expectation”. “On a year-ago basis, total CPI inflation is forecast to increase to 0.8%, matching the pace set through the end of 2012. Outside of the increase in energy prices, we expect underlying price pressures to have remained subdued in keeping with the wider economic environment”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, forecasting the core price index to increase by 0.4%, “though much of this gain is due to seasonality in travel services and clothing prices”. “Once these influences are stripped from the calculation, the seasonally-adjusted series expected to nudge higher by just 0.1%, matching the rate observed in the previous two months”, Pontoh added.
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