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ECB December forecasts set to paint a rosier outlook for growth and inflation – Danske Bank

In view of Aila Mihr, Analyst at Danske Bank, strong economic data in recent months and comments from ECB members point to an upward revision of the ECB’s GDP forecast.

Key Quotes

“Jens Weidmann: ‘Evidence is mounting the economic outlook will be at least as good as previously forecast, if not even better.’”

“Yves Mersch: ‘No-one would be overly surprised if we would again slightly revise upwards our projections for growth.’”

Inflation: We expect the ECB to revise up its inflation forecast for 2018 due to higher energy price inflation driven by recent higher oil prices. The new 2020 forecast will probably show a further pickup in inflation towards the target, driven by the ECB’s belief in increasing underlying inflation pressures in the light of the continued strong economic momentum and a growing urge in the Governing Council to move ahead with monetary policy normalisation.”

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