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NZD/USD fades a spike to 0.6865, softer China CPI, NZ growth outlook weigh

  • Bearish NZIER and China data weigh?
  • Catches fresh bids on resurgent USD supply.

The NZD/USD pair broke its downside consolidative mode and broke higher in Asia this Monday, as the renewed US dollar weakness offset weak Chinese inflation numbers and softer NZ growth expectations.

NZD/USD back to test 20-DMA at 0.6861

The spot rallied nearly 30-pips so far this session, mainly driven by the USD dynamics, as the post-NFP recovery in the USD index lost legs just ahead of the 94 handle, now pushing the rates back towards 93.80 levels.

However, the Kiwi stalls the renewed upside as a miss on the Chinese CPI figures and the expectations for a softer New Zealand’s growth outlook appear to weigh negatively on the NZD. China is New Zealand’s top trading partner.  

NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows softer growth outlook for New Zealand

Expect NZD/USD to average 65.9 cents by Q4 in 2018 – ASB Survey

From a wider perspective, the major extends its last week’s range-play into a new week, unable to find the clear direction on the Chinese inflation data, as markets await the FOMC decision and Chinese data dump for the range break-out.

In the meantime, the sentiment around the US dollar will play a key role ahead of the US CPI and PPI data releases.

NZD/USD Levels to consider

The spot trades near 0.6850 (psychological levels), below which 0.6835 (daily low) and 0.6780 (multi-month lows) are key near-term downside areas. To the topside, a break above 0.6900/09 (round number/ 50-DMA) could open doors towards 0.6946 (Nov 28 high).

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