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AUD: Flying high on the data – BBH

Analysts at BBH point out that the Australian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies and its 0.6% gain is seeing it probe three-week highs near $0.7650.

Key Quotes

“The market put more weight on the firm PMI (composite rose to 54.3 from 53.1) and better retail sales (0.5% vs. 0.3% expected and a revised 0.1% gain in September, which had initially been reported as flat) than on the slightly wider Q3 current account deficit and the failure of net exports to add to Q3 GDP (flat compared with expectations for 0.25% after 0.30% in Q2).The first look at Q3 GDP will be released in Australia on Wednesday.A 0.7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis is expected, about on par with Q2.”

“The Aussie moved higher on the data, but remained firm after the central bank meeting.The RBA, as widely expected, left the cash rate at 1.5%.However, the comments seem more optimistic on wage growth, and in any event, the central bank did not seem to be on the verge of easing policy.Some observers have been playing up that scenario, especially in light of the weakening of house prices.Australia's two-year yield had dipped below the US 2-year yield last week, but today's nearly 6 bp increase by Australia puts the rate back on top, and may be lending the Aussie some support.A convincing move above $0.7650 could see $0.7700-$0.7730.”

 

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