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AUD/USD: spikes 20 pips on surprise positive data ahead of RBA today

  • AUD/USD spikes on positive surprise data.
  • AUD/USD awaits RBA.

AUD/USD has spiked on the release of the October retail sales data (MoM) registering at 0.5% and above expectations of 0.3% vs previous 0.1% revised from 0.0%. At the same time, we had the Australia Current Account Balance above forecasts (-9.2B) in 3Q vs Actual (-9.1B). Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7620, up 0.35% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7624 and low at 0.7593.

Australia October retail sales beat estimates

The retail sales data was a surprise given the pessimism from related previous data in the Australian Industry Group’s latest PSI dropping this morning.

“The retail trade sub-sector’s index lifted to 46.3 points in November, indicating a further deterioration in conditions, albeit at a slower pace,” the Ai Group said.

However, today's data, ahead of the Christmas period, is encouraging despite the recent upsurge in cost of living with a spike in electricity, gas and petrol prices while soft wage growth over the same period had also coincided with the poor results in the retail sales in Q3. Aussie bulls will be relieved with this result and the revisions in an otherwise favourable environment for the greenback that was higher by 0.4% into the NY close overnight. 

RBA preview: Justifiable to sit in its comfort zone of neutrality

AUD/USD levels

The price is higher above a horizontal 21 SMA of 0.7587, resistance levels are 0.7627, 0.7640 and 0.7675 ahead of a wider 0.7710.  Meanwhile, the immediate support is 0.7575, as Valeria Bednarik noted earlier, but suggesting a more relevant one comes at 0.7530, the level to break to see the bearish trend resuming.

Australia October retail sales beat estimates

The official data released today shoed consumption as represented by retail sales rose 0.5 percent in October, beating the estimated rise to 0.3 perce
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